2010 Budget - Update

Now that the effects of the federal stimulus on education funding are becoming clearer, it is time for a 2010 education budget update. If you will recall, the State has projected a budget deficit for 2010 of approximately $3.2 billion. The solution to this deficit will not come from cuts alone, federal stimulus alone, revenue enhancements alone, from borrowing alone or from program shifts alone. Although not popular to say, the solution will most likely include some combination of three or four of these ideas.

Two things that are fairly well accepted by most legislators is that the federal stimulus money for education will keep the 2010 cuts from being as catastrophic as originally presented. Secondly, given the size of the deficit, all programs and agencies in Arizona will have to contribute something toward its solution. This includes education. Where there is tremendous debate is with the size of the cuts.

In recent conversations among appropriation leaders (chairs, vice-chairs and certain members), the desire to provide flexibility to school districts when making cuts has arisen as a top priority. In addition, these conversations seem to indicate that all options are still on the table; however, it is very difficult to see how the Governor's desire to send a tax increase to the ballot could garner sufficient votes to pass (let alone be passed by the voters). However, politics being what they are, never count the idea out until session is over.

The best way to provide flexibility to school districts is to not eliminate specific programs such as All-day K, but rather to provide for an across the board cut. This way the pain is more equitable and local schools and districts can decide for themselves which programs to keep and which to cut. So as not to be misunderstood, there may still be smaller programs that get cut such as the Early Learner program that pays for kindergarten twice; however, the majority of any cuts will be offered as a lump sum reduction.

If you consider that a 1% reduction in K-12 funding is approximately $50 million, then the size of new cuts to K-12 education being debated for 2010 is somewhere between 4% and 7%. Keep in mind that certain cuts to education do not come from the State Legislature such as reductions in sales tax collected (prop 301), gaming revenue (prop 202) or the effects of declining enrollment.

And finally, several people are asking about the April 15 deadline to notify teachers about next year's contracts. An agreement is being negotiated among the Senate, House and Governor's office that would suspend this requirement for this year only, or push the date back 30-60 days. More updates will be posted as information becomes available.